Pros

OPINION: A Snowball's Chance in D.C. By Emlyn Lewis
August 28, 2007
With a fortuitous, if not exactly well-deserved, win over the New York Energy Drinks and a bye week on the horizon, the time has come to do the math on the Revolution's chances for 2007 silverware. As things stand, our home town Revolution can win the Supporters' Shield, MLS Cup and the US Open Cup, hereafter to be known as the "Domestic Triple."

But what's it going to take?

Let's start with the Supporters' Shield, both because it's the trophy I most want (feel free to email your reasons why I'm an idiot), and it's the one with the most clear cut scenarios for success or failure. The Revs are currently top of the league, and they have seven regular season games left, including three against Chicago, Toronto and Columbus.

These games aren't necessarily gimmes (for proof dial the Way Back Machine for the Revs' recent 3-0 drubbing by Colorado, another team the Revs face in the final run), but they're certainly winnable.

After dueling with Dallas and then Houston for the top spot in the league standings for most of the season, the Revs may have a new threat to worry about. A late run by D.C. United makes them the biggest competition down the home stretch and after New England's bye week, the team goes to D.C. for what in my mind – small though it is – is the make or break game for the Supporters' Shield. A win gives them a clear shot at what, in most soccer-loving nations, would be a league championship (infer whatever snobbery you will).

Chance of winning the Supporters' Shield: 60 percent.

And then there's the U.S. Open Cup, which sees New England face off against the Carolina Railhawks in Connecticut on Sept. 4. It goes without saying that the Revs should beat their USL-1 opponents. The Railhawks currently sit eighth in the 12-team U.S. Second Division, which is to say, they're not even a very good second tier team.

Their top scorer is former Rev reserve team hero Connally Edozien. Of course, this is the sort of match that spawns phrases like "giant killer" and "the romance of the Cup" and "in a complete upset."

The Revs shouldn't look past the Railhawks, but they should be able to. After the Railhawks, the final would have them facing either FC Dallas, a very good MLS side, or the Seattle Sounders, who are actually at the top of USL-1. So a tough match either way, but one, ultimately, that is winnable.

Chance of winning the US Open Cup: 70 percent.

That brings us to MLS Cup, the one that I believe most fans would like to bring home. The main ingredient in winning a Cup like this one, one that consists of a three week knock-out tournament, is luck. Sure, it helps if you don't have any major injuries. The Revs sure could use a healthy Pat Noonan, for example, but we really counts is luck.

There is enough parity in MLS that the old NFL truism about "any given Sunday" applies to the MLS playoffs as well. And every season there are playoff surprises. The winner of the Supporters' Shield has seldom, if ever, also won the Cup.

The Revolution will likely face Kansas City in the first round, a team they never match up well with. The Wizard's primarily defensive play, a holdover from the Bob Gansler era, has been bolstered by the explosive scoring potential of Eddie Johnson. If the Revs get past KC, then they'll get either D.C. or New York in the Eastern Conference Final. Neither of which, based on recent results will be an easy match, and of course MLS Cup itself is never a walk over.

The regular season has shown us, thus far, that the Revolution are the best team in the league, but we've had 23 data points from which to extrapolate that info. Condense the data set to a home-and-home playoff or a single elimination final, and anything is statistically possible.

Thus, the need for luck.

Chance of winning MLS Cup: 35 percent.

If my entirely unscientific and possibly hair-brained assessment of the Revolution's end-of-season prospects are correct, then their shot at the Domestic Triple is 15 percent (60% x 70% x 35%). The thing to remember, oh you pessimists of New England, is that, no matter how small a chance 15 percent seems, the Revolution are still probably the team with the best overall odds of finishing with silverware in 2007. Let's call it a snowball's chance in Washington, D.C., site of the MLS Cup Final.

And for that, we should take a moment to be grateful.

Emlyn Lewis can be reached at emlynlewis@comcast.net.